Kim Jong Un's rise to power will embolden North Korea's military -- and tighten ties to China - NY Daily News

Kim Jong Un's rise to power will embolden North Korea's military -- and tighten ties to China - NY Daily News: "In carefully scripted moves, Kim Jong Un has begun to assume the titles and other formal attributes of power once held by his father, the now-deceased Kim Jong Il. Yet few think that, after the relatively short mourning period ends on Thursday, the Great Successor, as the young Kim is now officially called, will be able to assume effective control of the regime in Pyongyang."

As we are soon to discover, this will mean a more powerful North Korean military — and an emboldened Chinese military as well. It could also very possibly mean, if you can believe it, a more dangerous North Korea.

The elder Kim, except for a brief period after his August 2008 stroke, ruled the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea like an absolute dictator. Kim kept his fractious regime together by being, at turns, charming, devious and utterly brutal. It’s no secret how he could stay on the throne after the Communist world’s first hereditary transfer of power: Kim Il Sung, his dad, gave him more than two decades of on-the-job training.

The young Kim — he is perhaps 28 — has been the dictator-in-waiting for less than three years. He may have inherited all the ruthlessness of his notorious family, but his grip on power is fragile. He certainly has not had the time to either place his supporters into key positions in the regime or gain the experience of balancing the three main factions that run North Korea.

Of those factions, the military is by far the most influential. Kim Jong Il, throughout his rule, promoted military-first politics — and to help Kim Jong Un he arranged for him to be made a full general in September 2010.

Yet the award of four stars was just for show. The real generals and admirals will run the country going forward. Because the flag officers will be in charge, there is not only a change in leaders but also a fundamental transformation in the structure of the North Korean regime itself, a transition from one-man rule to a military-dominated collective leadership.

At the same time, we are watching a similar dynamic occurring in North Korea’s big brother, the People’s Republic of China. The Chinese Communist Party has already embarked on a multiyear political transition that formally starts at the end of 2012 and will last for at least two years. As civilian leaders jockey for position, the military is enhancing its decade-old role as the ultimate broker in Beijing. Flag officers are gaining influence fast and even beginning to operate independently of the top party leadership.

Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/kim-jong-rise-power-embolden-north-korea-military-tighten-ties-china-article-1.998146#ixzz1hvih2rIJ

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